Begin Project #1: Design your own fossil fuel emissions scenario that would limit future warming by 2100 to 2.5☌ relative to pre-industrial levels.P., "Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading," Nature, 577, 618-620 (2020). IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 - Summary for Policy Makers (link is external).Detailed directions and submission instructions are located within this lesson. The following is an overview of the required activities for Lesson 6. Please refer to the Syllabus for specific time frames and due dates. Discuss the wedges concept for controlling greenhouse gas emissions.Explain the concept of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and.Distinguish between the concepts of CO 2 and CO 2 equivalent emissions.Discuss the range of hypothetical pathways of future greenhouse gas emissions.What will we learn in Lesson 6?īy the end of Lesson 6, you should be able to: Before we can project human-caused climate changes, however, we must consider the various plausible scenarios for future human behavior, and resulting greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Providing transparency on the implications of these choices, such as presented in this paper, may help governments to do so.Now that we have explored the underlying workings of the climate system, experimented with actual climate models and validated their predictions, we are in a position to use climate models to make projections of future climate change. Such choices have to be made depending on how calculation results are to be used by policymakers when negotiating a future international climate agreement. The results presented in this paper show the importance of the choices made when calculating the historical contributions by the various countries. From a scientific perspective, all greenhouse gases should preferably be included, as well as the most recent emission trends, as was done in the reference calculations included in this study. This significantly changes the historical relative contributions by many countries, altering their overall relative contributions by a multiplicative factor that ranges from 0.15 to 1.5, compared to reference values (reference calculations cover the 1850–2010 period and include all greenhouse gas emissions). This increases the relative contribution by developed countries as a group to as much as 80%. Another variant, one that is often used by experts from developing countries, excludes recent emissions (2000–2010), non-CO 2 greenhouse gases, and CO 2 from land-use change and forestry. This variant takes into account the fact that emerging economies benefit from existing technologies developed elsewhere. The total contribution by the developed countries as a group during the 1850–2010 period came to 48%. Developed countriesĬontributions to cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (percentage) according to the reference calculations, including all greenhouse gas emissions, cover the 1850–2010 period Countries’ contributions vary according to the choices made in calculation methodsĭiscounting historical emissions for technological progress, for example, reduces the relative contributions by some developed countries and increases those by certain developing countries. Hence, somewhere during the current decade, the share of the cumulative historical emissions in developing countries will surpass that of the developed countries. By 2020, the share of developing countries will probably amount to 51%. The group of developed countries was responsible for 52%. Taking into account all greenhouse gas emissions emitted during the 1850–2010 period, the relative contribution by developing countries to global cumulative emissions was 48%. Developing countries’ contributions to climate change approach 50%
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